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Abstract Details
Time series analysis and scaling law characteristics of viral hepatitis from 2004 to 2023 in Zhejiang Province, China.
Xue, Ming (M);Wu, Chen (C);Liu, Kui (K);Lu, Qinbao (Q);Ding, Zheyuan (Z);Wang, Xinyi (X);Fu, Tianyin (T);Lin, Junfen (J);Wu, Haocheng (H);
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis significantly increases the global disease burden and has become a major public health issue worldwide. China is a high-risk area for viral hepatitis, which is also a serious public health problem.
METHODS: The scaling relationship between various types of hepatitis and population size was explained by a scaling law. Fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analyses were used to calculate a combined index of β based on the single-scale index from 2004 to 2023. Furthermore, the X11 process was employed to identify the structural components of the time series of various types of hepatitis.
RESULTS: In the past 20 years, the proportion of patients with viral hepatitis in Zhejiang Province has changed significantly, and hepatitis B remains the main type of hepatitis, accounting for approximately 70% of all hepatitis cases. The proportion of hepatitis C and E cases has been increasing, whereas the proportion of hepatitis A cases has been decreasing since 2004 and has remained at a low level (approximately 3%) since 2010. The combined scaling exponents of hepatitis A, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, hepatitis E and unclassified hepatitis based on the random effects model were 0.88 (95% confidence interval(CI): 0.78 to 0.98), 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.86), 1.18 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.26), 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.97) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.79 to 1.00), respectively.
CONCLUSION: In the past 20 years, the epidemic situation of hepatitis A, hepatitis B and unclassified hepatitis has shown a significant downward trend, whereas the proportions of hepatitis C and hepatitis E among those with viral hepatitis have increased annually. The combined scaling exponent and development trends of the five types of hepatitis show significant heterogeneity. Overall, hepatitis C exhibits superlinear characteristics, whereas other types of hepatitis exhibit sublinear characteristics. Different types of hepatitis exhibit distinct epidemic characteristics and require targeted prevention and control measures.
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