The global risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been largely driven by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection for the past century, along with hepatitis C virus (HCV), aflatoxin, excessive alcohol consumption, and obesity/diabetes. The dominant effect of HBV on global HCC risk should decline as the population vaccinated against HBV grows older. Infection with HCV is also expected to decline. Projections of HCV-related HCC rates remaining high for another 30 years may be overly pessimistic. Alcohol may be less of a factor in HCC in coming years. However, obesity and diabetes may become even more important risk factors for HCC.